It is important to note that if your true probability is higher than the implied probability that a sportsbook is giving you, then that is a valuable bet.Ĭreating an accurate predictive model can take years to perfect. If you have a predictive model and it gives the Titans a win probability of 65%, then betting on the Titans would be a good bet. If you are able to calculate true probability, you can use those odds to make an informed decision on who to bet on. Since the same odds are offered for the Bills to win, the implied probability for the Bills to win are 43.48%. In this scenario, the implied probability that the book is giving for the Titans to win is 60%. By using our odds calculator, you can calculate the implied probability of either team winning. Let's say Caesars Sportsbook is offering the Titans v. If true probability > implied probability, that is a good bet to take.Įxample Game: Tennessee Titans (-150) vs. True probability is what you think a certain bet’s win probability is after you handicap the game/situation. This is where handicapping comes into play. However, one person can calculate true probability by using predictive models. There is no concrete, “true probability” for an outcome. This seems easy, but how do you find true odds? Essentially, true odds are subjective. If that same outcome has a true probability of 52.38% or higher, then you would want to take that bet. We know that both outcomes have an implied probability of 52.38%. Let's use the above bet of -110 for both outcomes on a NFL spread bet. True odds are the odds that a bettor gives a certain outcome to happen. The implied probability of this spread bet winning would be 52.38% This gives both outcomes a win probability of 52.38%. A spread bet in football is normally offered at -110 on both sides of the bet.

Implied odds are the conversion of a sportsbooks offered odds into an implied win probability. You can use our odds calculator above to calculate the implied odds of a given bet as long as you know the odds of the bet. Implied odds and true odds are important in determining if you are making a bet that has good value. When you decide to bet on sports, it is important to have a grasp on a few things. With this being said, lets look at an example from an NFL game. If you find a bet where the implied probability of an outcome is lower than the true probability, then that is usually considered a good bet to make. The odds that a sportsbook offers you is directly related to the implied probability of that outcome happening. It is very important to know what payout you are getting on a bet.

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